The Olive Tree — October 2025 Insights

P

Proof Analytics

Monthly Insights Report

The Olive Tree

October 2025 · Manchester, UK

Report period 1 Oct – 31 Oct 2025

Delivered 5 November 2025

Client The Olive Tree Restaurant

Prepared by Proof Analytics Ltd

Total Revenue

£28,740

↑ +11.2% vs September

Covers Served

1,842

↑ +8.6% vs September

Avg Spend / Cover

£15.60

↑ +£1.12 vs September

Confidential · Prepared exclusively for The Olive Tree
Data sourced from your POS system, 1 – 31 Oct 2025

Executive Summary

The month in 90 seconds

The headlines — what happened, what needs fixing, and what to do next.

✓ What went well

Revenue was your best October ever at £28,740 — up 11.2% on September and 14.8% year-on-year. Friday and Saturday evenings drove most of that growth.
Your returning customer rate jumped to 64% (was 58% in September). That means more than 6 in every 10 customers chose to come back — a real sign the experience is landing.
The new lamb shank main has become your second-highest margin dish in its first full month. Average margin of 71% and 114 orders. Worth keeping permanently.

✗ What to fix

Tuesday and Wednesday are dead. Combined they account for just 9% of weekly revenue. You're paying fixed costs on two nearly-empty nights.
31 customers who visited at least 3 times before June haven't been back in 60+ days. That's £2,400–£3,100 in annualised spend walking out the door.
The truffle arancini starter has been on the menu for 6 months and has a 34% margin — your lowest item by far. It's slowing the kitchen down and costing you money.

🎯

Recommended action for November

Run a midweek offer — a two-course dinner for two at £38 on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. It doesn't need to be heavily discounted, just reason enough to come in on a quiet night. Even filling 12 extra covers per quiet night would add roughly £1,700/month in revenue that currently doesn't exist.

⚡ What to do this week

Three actions, this week only

Email your 31 lapsed regulars with a personal "we miss you" note and a complimentary dessert voucher. This has the highest ROI of anything you could do right now.
Pull the truffle arancini from the next printed menu run. Move freed prep time to the lamb shank and the halloumi skewers (both high margin).
Set up a simple midweek promotion — even a printed table card works — and tell your regulars about it at this weekend's service.

Revenue & Covers

Your busiest October yet

Weekly trends, monthly comparison, and where your revenue actually comes from day by day.

Total Revenue

£28,740

↑ +£2,905 vs Sep

Covers Served

1,842

↑ +146 vs Sep

Avg Spend / Cover

£15.60

↑ +£1.12 vs Sep

Best Day

Sat 18th

£4,120 · 184 covers

Weekly Revenue — October 2025

Revenue by day of week

Mon

£1,540

Tue

£1,190

Wed

£1,370

Thu

£4,080

Fri

£7,480

Sat

£8,510

Sun

£3,320

Month on month comparison

Metric

Sep → Oct

Change

Revenue

£25,835 → £28,740

+11.2%

Covers

1,696 → 1,842

+8.6%

Avg/cover

£14.48 → £15.60

+7.7%

Food rev.

£17,180 → £19,240

+12.0%

Drinks rev.

£8,655 → £9,500

+9.8%

Fri + Sat together account for 56% of your total weekly revenue. Protecting those nights is non-negotiable.

Customers

Who's coming in — and who's gone quiet

Your customer mix, your most valuable regulars, and the ones slipping away.

Customer mix — October 2025

64%

27%

9%

Returning (64%)

New (27%)

At-risk (9%)

Returning rate up from 58% in September. New customer acquisition holding steady. The 9% at-risk group are your priority — see table below.

Total unique customers

847

↑ +62 vs September

Returning

542

New this month

229

At-risk (60+ days)

76

Avg visits/returner

3.2

Top 10 customers by total spend — October 2025

#	Name	Visits this month	Total spend	Avg / visit	Status
1	Margaret W.	5	£412	£82.40	Loyal
2	James & Sarah H.	4	£368	£92.00	Loyal
3	Tom B.	3	£287	£95.67	Loyal
4	Claire & David R.	3	£264	£88.00	Loyal
5	Priya M.	4	£248	£62.00	Loyal
6	Rob & Nadia S.	2	£231	£115.50	Loyal
7	Emma P.	3	£218	£72.67	Loyal
8	Kevin O.	2	£194	£97.00	Watch
9	Fatima & Ali K.	2	£186	£93.00	Loyal
10	Paul D.	2	£174	£87.00	Loyal

⚠ At-risk customers — no visit in 60+ days (sample of 8)

Name	Last visit	Days since	Lifetime spend	Total visits
John & Lynn F.	23 Aug 2025	73 days	£890	9
Anna C.	19 Aug 2025	77 days	£640	7
Michael T.	14 Aug 2025	82 days	£580	6
Diane & Gary H.	9 Aug 2025	87 days	£1,120	11
Sandra B.	31 Jul 2025	96 days	£430	5
Colin W.	28 Jul 2025	99 days	£720	8
Yasmin & Mo A.	22 Jul 2025	105 days	£960	10
Rachel K.	18 Jul 2025	109 days	£360	4

Full list of 76 at-risk customers available on request. Reach out to your analyst to get the full export with contact details for outreach.

Menu Performance

What's making you money — and what isn't

Margin by dish, ordered by contribution. Items marked Remove are costing you more than they're worth.

Top 5 items by margin

Dish	Orders	Margin %
Mezze platter (starter)	186	78%	Keep
Lamb shank (main)	114	71%	Keep
Halloumi skewers	143	69%	Keep
House red (carafe)	212	74%	Keep
Chocolate fondant	98	66%	Keep

The lamb shank is brand new and already #2 by margin. Consider pushing it to your front-of-house team as a recommend.

Bottom 5 items by margin

Dish	Orders	Margin %
Truffle arancini	47	34%	Remove
Beef burger (lunch)	31	38%	Remove
Prawn cocktail	28	42%	Watch
Kids pasta	22	44%	Watch
House lemonade	64	46%	Watch

Truffle arancini: low margin, low orders, complex prep. Cut it. The beef burger lunch special hasn't found an audience — pull it and simplify the lunch menu.

Full menu snapshot — all 22 active items ranked by margin

Category	Dish	Orders	Revenue	Margin %	Action
Drinks	House red (carafe)	212	£3,180	74%	Keep
Starters	Mezze platter	186	£2,046	78%	Keep
Starters	Halloumi skewers	143	£1,573	69%	Keep
Mains	Lamb shank	114	£2,052	71%	Keep
Desserts	Chocolate fondant	98	£882	66%	Keep
Mains	Sea bream fillet	89	£1,780	62%	Keep
Mains	Mushroom risotto (v)	76	£1,140	59%	Keep
Drinks	House white (carafe)	184	£2,576	71%	Keep
Starters	Soup of the day	62	£434	58%	Keep
Drinks	House lemonade	64	£256	46%	Watch
Starters	Prawn cocktail	28	£308	42%	Watch
Starters	Truffle arancini	47	£611	34%	Remove
Mains	Beef burger (lunch)	31	£496	38%	Remove

9 more items not shown — all margin 54–64%, status Keep. Full dataset on request.

Forecast & Next Steps

November outlook — and what to stock

Based on October's trends, seasonal patterns, and the actions we're recommending you take.

Projected November Revenue

£30,200

+5.1% on October if midweek promo lands

Without midweek action

£27,400

−4.7% — quiet Tues/Wed drag continues

Projected Covers

1,940

↑ +98 vs October

Avg Spend / Cover

£15.57

Broadly flat — menu changes take time

Recommended stock adjustments for November

🐑 Lamb shoulder (for shank) ↑ Increase order by 20% — dish is flying, don't run out on weekends

🧀 Halloumi ↑ Increase order by 15% — high margin, high velocity

🍷 House red wine ↑ Increase by 10% — carafes are up, November brings colder weather = more red

🍄 Truffle (for arancini) ↓ Don't reorder — dish is being removed from next menu

🍤 Prawns (cocktail) → Hold current levels — dish under review, don't build stock

🍫 Chocolate (fondant) ↑ Slight increase (+8%) — dessert orders tick up in colder months

How we forecast: We use your last 12 months of POS data, weight recent weeks more heavily, and adjust for seasonal patterns (October–November historically sees a +4–8% lift for Manchester restaurants as the evenings get darker and people eat out more). The midweek promo uplift is modelled at 65% of historical midweek promo conversions across similar venues.

⚡ What to do this week

Your action list — ranked by impact

Email your 31 highest-value lapsed customers (list provided separately). Personalised note + complimentary dessert voucher. Do this before Friday.
Brief your front-of-house team: lamb shank is the recommend this weekend. It has the margin, it has the story, push it hard.
Take the truffle arancini off the next printed menu. It's your lowest-margin dish by a distance and it's slowing kitchen throughput.
Design a simple Tuesday–Wednesday "Date Night" two-course offer at £38 for two. Doesn't need to be fancy — a printed table card and a mention on Instagram is enough to start.
Call your wine supplier and pre-order the November uplift on house red. Carafe orders were up 14% in October — don't get caught short on a Friday night.

Questions or want to dig deeper? Reply to this report or email your analyst at hello@proofanalytics.co.uk. Your next report covers November and lands the first week of December. If there's a specific area you'd like us to focus on, just say — we build each report around what matters most to you.